A.N.Morozov.

WHAT SHOULD PRECEDE THE DIVERSION OF THE SIBERIAN RIVERS RUNOFFS TO CENTRAL ASIA?

In the present paper, possible consequences of the donor inflow from the Siberian rivers to the Central Asian region under the current situation, having arisen in the Aral Sea basin, are analyzed with regard to only the engineering and reclamation problems of irrigated lands. It is obvious there are still a number of aspects, beginning from the geopolitical and concluding by the social ones [1-3], which should be allowed for when developing a project; however, we will not go into those aspects, as we are intending to merely make it clear how one should and how one can solve a number of particularly technical problems prior to starting a too costly work of runoff diversion, as well as why without solving those problems the runoff diversion will hardly be economically sound, and it may even be detrimental to the land-reclamation and irrigated agriculture of Uzbekistan and other countries.
Besides, in the given paper, potential directions for collaboration with the contiguous countries and Russia are considered, in particular, in the context of the idea of the establishment of "The Trans-Asian Development Corridor", to solve the problems of the reclamation of Uzbekistan's irrigated lands and ecology, which have to be solved prior to the implementation of the project. The science intensity, the number of workplaces that will have been created, and efficiency of this cooperation will be not at all less than the Siberian rivers' runoff diversion itself.

Contents:
Introduction
1. State of the art of the region water industry.
2. What is water reclamation needed in an arid zone for?
3. What specific opportunities for Russia and Uzbekistan will the Eurasian Community offer from the perspective of the development of irrigated agriculture and land-reclamation?
References.

INTRODUCTION

The main problems of water use in the irrigated agriculture of any country are as follows:

• control of the source flow and water withdrawal from those;
  
• water delivery to irrigated lands;
  
• rationing of water consumption by certain areas;
  
• irrigation rationing and uniform soil moistening over the areas of irrigated lands;
  
• draining of an irrigated area for the drainage of excessive water and salts;
  
• elimination of the adverse effect of irrigation on the adjacent, subjacent areas;
  
• transportation of drainage waste water to natural depressions, springs, or for biological treatment and desalination.
  

Actual situation in the water economy of Central Asia is analyzed in a lot of works, e.g. [4-9]. The main indications of this condition can be characterized in a few words as follows:

• presence and aggravation of the inter-branch and inter-state water allocation problems;
  
• growing shortage and worsening quality of water resources;
  
• increasing areas of salted irrigated lands;
  
• changing for worse of the ecological situation.
  

First of all, we notice that the state of the art of the problems of the region's reclamation and ecology is determined not by water quantity, but its utilization way. In the present state of affairs, it is difficult to change anything for better by mere increasing water supply to the region, yet it is too easy to even aggravate negative processes. It is well known that completely different diseases may show very like symptoms; therefore prior to treating a patient, they try to define the exact diagnosis: what disease exactly has caused these symptoms, because treatments methods may totally differ. And if, for example, a patient parched with thirst and at the same time having diseased kidneys will be prescribed extra drinking, I doubt whether he will get better. In our opinion, the state have developed today in the matter of Siberian rivers' runoffs diversion resembles the said before!

 

What did the feature of irrigation development consisted in till the 50's of the past century?
When developing irrigation in the region, the principal concern was focused on the engineering part of the problem, namely the perfection and building of water intake facilities, water reservoirs, and canals.

In the 50's of the last century, for the first time in the region's history, a reform was carried out towards the transition to the furrow irrigation way. That allowed to widely mechanize tillage of the agricultural ground and to improve considerably irrigation evenness and, accordingly, the efficiency of water resources use. Making water supply easier and, to some extent, improving irrigation technique with using drainage yielded favourable results, i.e. the land crop capacity reached a relatively high level. However, bringing into service of new vast areas for irrigation in the zones with poorly provided natural outflow, of surface and underground waters, resulted in the immediate aggravation of the land swamping and salinization problems. And drainage on those territories was not a panacea for the growing problems even there where it was skillfully designed and built bona fide.

On very old lands being irrigated, these problems were solved by either natural drainage or so-called dry drainage, that is salts outflow and accumulation on the leas and lands not occupied by crops. The ancient states on the areas of which such problems appeared gradually went to ruins, according to the suppositions of archeologists.

In our time, regardless of the fact that they had already confronted the similar problems when developing vast land tracts in the Golodnaya steppe (Mirzachul) at the beginning of the past century, they did not offer or, more precisely, realized any effective ways for solving those, except for the intensification of the territory drainage. Drainage use have solved that problem to some degree for many years (as long as the water resources were practically not limited), although it cost much and had a lot of ecological by-effect consequences.

Rapid development of irrigation in Central Asia continued in the 60-90's of the last century. During that period, the irrigation infrastructure got most features of the present day: the systems of reservoirs for seasonal river flow regulation and unique reservoirs for over-year regulation of the main source rivers (in the Syrdarya river basin and, in part, in the Amudarya river basin) were constructed. These are powerful hydroelectric power stations, cascades of unique pumping stations, and main canals for inter-basin diversion of runoffs, engineering systems on the areas for new development (the Golodnaya, Djizzak, Sherabad, and Karshi steppes, and Kyrkkyz massif).

One cannot say that the development of irrigation in those years happened spontaneously and without plan. In accordance with the assignments set by the Union and republican governments, the so-called Development Schemes were being developed for different levels: of the Union, the Republic, and of the Basins (Aral Sea, Amudarya and Syrdarya rivers) [10-20], and others. In those works, unique by its scale, outstanding experts from various departments, well-known designers and scientists, such as topographers, hydraulic engineers, land reclamation specialists, soil scientists, hydro-geologists, hydrologists, agricultural economists, and others took part

How and what for, under such well-designed developmental works, which indeed are exemplary in many respects, a global-scale catastrophe has arisen in the Aral Sea region?

In our opinion, notwithstanding the very deep workup of most hydraulic engineering and reclamation matters in those papers, the water use problems on the field never raised as principal.

At the realization of those papers, everything relating to the objects for building new canals, constructions, water reservoirs, and for the deployment of new lands was financed; and all the rest, the so-called activities, among which are the reconstruction of irrigated lands, introduction of a new irrigation method, and other alike dribs and drabs, for the most part, simply remained on paper. Nobody was even going to implement those seriously; they never allotted money required. The matter resulted in experimental and field testing on individual grounds or experimental stations.

Most likely, some doubts were cast upon the expediency of the application of mechanized irrigation facilities despite their evident advantages because of one-sided economical evaluation of their efficiency which did not take into account side-effects some of those, even up to now, are not obvious to many engineers and researchers. For example, they evaluated only irrigation water saved on the experimental field, but not necessarily the case for the water which would be saved in the system in the whole. Whereas, at the systems' performance factor of 0.5, this means that at the head hydraulic works, the extent of that saving redoubles and for the system there is a chance to utilize saved water resources for efficient operation and further development.
They absolutely did not take into consideration that the load on the drainage can be reduced, and, hence, its extent as well can be shortened, by several times or at least by a magnitude adequate to the losses prevented.

They remembered the ecological aspect of the matter only when the river water salinity in its lower reaches exceeded by far 1 g/l and became critical.
It is difficult to judge how come all of that happened; apparently, the blame can be divided, for sure, in half and put on both the engineers, who did not completely realized the role of efficient water use on the field and, therefore, did not assert their decisions, and on the administration, who wanted scarcely anything else besides the execution of the current plan and momentary getting of currency production for "large-scale building of socialism".
Furthermore, the lop-sided reconstruction, carried out, obviously, not to sufficient degree and only at the local level, was applying to the entrance network, major planning, and drainage, but didn't solve the problems of irrigation technique and, therefore, resulted in, strange though it may seem, drastically decreasing yield. That took place for a simple reason that even in the case of reduced water supply to the farming, getting improved drainage was hampered because of the fields which were impossible to water by the furrow technique remained practically unchanged! There were cases (for example, in a number of farms in the old zone of the Karshy steppe) when after reconstruction the yield dropped from 40 to 20 hundredweight/ha and even lower, although water saving increased twice, from 26 thousand down to 13 thousand m3/ha with the science-based rate of 8 thousand. m3/ha Maybe that was the real reason for the negative attitude of the economic managers toward the reconstruction, which caused them to want to use new lands since that could give them momentary payment, and I wonder if there was anybody who was caring about the consequences.

In the Golodnaya Steppe, the model of an engineering idea of the times of flourishing reclamation in 1970-1085 years, one can see from a plane with the naked eye that the half 80 % of the fields (their lower parts) is either irrigated not enough or not irrigated at all, although it was normally sown and cultivated, the evidence of which are individual cotton rows to those water reached by a miracle. The rest 20 % was merely located at the trough head and had the opportunity of totally unlimited water intake. Yet, save for the offers to punish the irrigators nothing was undertaken with the exception of weak attempts to apply flexible hoses (according to the standard, 2 running meter of hose per 1 ha!). We are in some doubt about that even if each of the irrigators were at gun point, the situation would improved so much, because the furrow irrigation method itself, even in theory, doesn't allow uniform irrigation and without great losses!

There is an idea that brining ample amount of pure water to the Syrdarya and Amudarya river lower reaches can almost on its own account solve the long-existing problems of irrigated agriculture, reclamation, and ecology of the Aral Sea region and Uzbekistan in particular. At least, such an opinion is formed when reading the materials on "Development Schemes for �" [11-17] and popular articles on this issue [21].

Too simplified form (probably, we are even exaggerating) of the issue in question is presented in those works as follows:
The first version, the simplest and comprehensible.
" there is W km3 annual runoff of water resources meant for irrigated agriculture;
" M thousand m3/ha is required for one hectare of irrigate tillage;
" then, maximum irrigated area is S = W / M million ha.
If we are intending to irrigate areas more than the figure S has been obtained, i.e. irrigate extra dS ha, then we have to find somewhere additional water resources dW = dS * M. That water can be taken, let's say, from the Siberian rivers abounding in water.
The second version, far from being simple and not so comprehensible as the first one proposes, with available amount of water resources W, reducing specific water consumption per one hectare of irrigated tillage down to M1 by taking some measures like increasing efficiency of the irrigation systems, changing the ratio of the crops, and/or applying perfect irrigation technology. In this case dS = W / M1 - S.
Herein, �1 = � - dM, where dM signifies specific water saving due to the measures undertaken.

If to bring all the issue to the economic evaluation of the specific water saving, dM, and not to take into account all the series of good consequences owing to the measures taken in the irrigated agriculture, reclamation, and ecology, it turns out to be very costly and, as a rule, with such a narrow approach to the estimation of cost effectiveness, it does not pay. Therefore, the first version, because of its complete simplicity, clearness, and, ostensibly, economic advantages, becomes the most attractive and, by the way, easy to control (as many irrigated lands as water!).

So, everything is simple and clear as to the first version: the region develops, and when spare water resources are exhausted, those can be brought from other basins, and again everything goes back to follow the previous scenario� In the second version, increase of areas is supposed to be made in the result of the measures undertaken toward the reconstruction of the system and improvement of water use.

Despite the fact that as early as in the late seventies of the past century interesting works appeared, in which the integrated assessment strategy was given for the irrigation and drainage systems (IDS) with perfect irrigation technique and it was shown that such IDSs are more economically efficient [22, 23]; unfortunately, that suggestion was never realized in any large-scale design workup, known to us, let alone its implementation.

In one of the projects [18], when it had become evident that, within the next few years and decades, there is no reason for hope for the increase of irrigated lands in Uzbekistan thanks to makeup by Siberian water, they applied the second approach and began calculating how many hectares have to be reconstructed so that the water saved owing to that could be used for irrigating one new hectare. Moreover, in that work, they tried to evaluate the saving of irrigation water in the result of the application of the perfect irrigation technique. That choice was called "hypothetical". At that, they did not take into consideration all the positive aspects of the supposed measures save for water saving and, thus, use of perfect irrigation technology was not estimated from the economic and ecological points of view.

There are two, quite different approaches to the use of land and water resources - extensive and intensive. At the extensive approach, out-of-date IDS constructions, farming and crop irrigation technologies are used, that is the low-cost methods of farming are popularized, which do not into consideration the consequences of their effect on the land reclamation condition and environment. Apparently, if, when constructing the IDS existing now, they used really comprehensive approaches, for example, value analysis (VA) methods having well proved themselves in different sectors, most strategic mistakes of the past years could be avoided.

At an intensive approach, they apply up-to-date constructions of IDS, farming and crop irrigation technologies that ensure thrifty use of water resources preserving and improving (reclaiming) the environment. Intensive technologies provide the base for the continual and steady development of artificial ecological systems, which covers capital outlays very fast and assures gaining stable incomes along with normal ecological state of the irrigated territories.

Well-known extensive technologies, being applied nowadays in the Aral Sea basin, seem to be very cheap; however, according to the experience, application of low-cost extensive technologies in the irrigated agriculture during very short period, less than 50 years, has led to integrated crisis in that basin long before the real depletion of water resources. In the presence of sufficiently great amount of water resources there, difficulties of efficient control and use of those came very soon. At the same time, in a number of countries of similar environmental and climatic conditions, but using the advanced technologies of water storing, transporting, and distribution in IDS and perfect irrigation technologies, nothing of the sort occurs.

Along with growing areas of irrigated lands and increasing land use ratio, certain prerequisites for system crisis were forming in the region concerned with general water resources depletion and worsening of its quality owing to the out-of-date irrigation technique being applied that was unable to maintain the land reclamation state. The attempts to solve the problems of efficient water use on the fields were, at first, related to purely economic reasons - low crop productivity with self-flowing irrigation ways under working conditions in comparison with potentiality of the region soils. Still, with the growing shortage of irrigation water and its deteriorating quality, it was becoming more and more obvious that impetuous aggravation of the problem was taking place. In that period, 1960-1990 years, the attempts to find more reasonable irrigation ways that could more completely satisfy the needs of crops for the water and salt regimes of soil, along with the minimum pollution of the environment, were becoming more persistent. They were testing different mechanization ways for irrigation by plots, strips, and furrows, as well as the application of subsoil irrigation, sprinkling irrigation, and trickles, but perfect irrigation technique was never used for more than 5 % of the field.

Now we shall try to analyze with no emotion the realities of the present and determine whether bringing additional water to the Central Asian region for the development of irrigated agriculture will produce effect without undertaking very measures toward the improvement of the situation in the water industry and reclamation.

1. STATE OF THE ART OF THE REGION WATER INDUSTRY

What is actually going on today? We shall enumerate the facts being beyond question to everyone:
a) At present, the efficiency factor of the irrigation systems (from the sources to the fields) is estimated within the range 0.5 - 0.6 [9].

b) Theoretical optimum efficiency factor being applied now by the most perfect furrow irrigation technology for medium- and low permeable soils (existent on paper and in computers) does not exceed 0.7; and this is not yet a complete characteristic of the perfection of irrigation means, since for the productivity of crop cultivation on irrigated lands water distribution uniformity is not of lesser importance too! [24-29]. Thus, only 40-50 % of the water taken from the sources is able to reach the fields; and 35 - 42 % (even this figure, we would like to emphasize here, is just theoretical, and in fact this value is still lower) can be used usefully by the ultimate consumers, namely crops grown on the irrigated lands.
This is very significant, since nowadays the irrigated agriculture of Uzbekistan uses around 88 % of all water resources [19].

c) Designing and building of irrigation systems on the lands subjected to salinization without taking into account possible pollution of the sources by return water is the reason for the growing worsening quality of the water resources. The potential volume of the return water comes to 58 - 65 % of the head water-withdrawal, including the losses during the transit to depressions or sources estimated about 15-25 % of the value given supra. Most part of the return water, about 80 %, gets directly into the sources and indirectly, together with river water, is partly used again, and the rest is exported to internal-drainage depressions and is lost irrevocably to evaporation. The quality of the return water is 3-12 times lower than that of river water at the outlet from the mountain into the valley (0.3 - 0.4 g/l) [19]. Its reuse is absolutely contrary to the doctrine of "flushing irrigation regime" [30 - 40] accepted in irrigation agriculture on he lands liable to salinization, because it returns salts taken away from the irrigated lands located on the river upstream to the areas situated down the IDS.

d) In the result of the problems, mentioned in clauses (1) and (2), the processes are progressing, leading to the growth of waterlogged and, to various degrees, salted lands. Their area in Uzbekistan have increased roughly by 15 % during the last 10-15 years and amounted, by different estimates, to 50 - 65 %.

e) Independency of the Central Asian countries and their consequent transition to the market system in the economy have brought to the growing inter-branch and interstate water apportionment problems. The necessity in the introduction of charge for water-control services and in standardization, on the economic ground, of water and energetic relations between the states is evident, because the operation mode of the powerful hydropower stations at the large water reservoirs of river flow over-year regulation in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan requires for unacceptable discharge to the irrigated agriculture of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, which aggravates their reclamation problems.

Thus, in our opinion, the main reason for the irrigated lands reclamation crisis in the Central Asian republics, having in view only the problems associated with the lowering soil crop-producing capacity because of its salinization, deficiency of irrigation water, as well as contamination of the sources by drainage-waste flows, is:
" wrong water resources control;
" imperfect facilities to supply water to fields;
" imperfect irrigation technology;
" unsettled problems of drainage-waste water exporting or utilization.

This is recognized by a number of researchers having analyzed soil degradation problems of yhe Central Asian region [41, 42].
Lack of incentives for water saving at the field level, its rational use, pseudo-free delivery (it is paid in the form of other types of tax and by other taxpayers of the country) were not conducive to the solution of irrigation technology problems, especially since perfect irrigation technique is relatively expensive, requires great operating costs, high level of maintenance service and specialists training and, most significant, accurate abidance of irrigation terms and rates.

For half a century of the development of the vast areas of new lands, a situation arose when out of the total water-taking for the systems, 40 - 50 % of which was performed by means of pumps, only about 30 % was beneficially used to the fields, and the most part, 70 %, of the water created so-called land-reclamation problems which are being solved by the ameliorators exerting, one can hardly say, heroic efforts, maintaining drainage - the panacea from all troubles [39], exporting its flows back to the water sources (80 %) and depressions (20 %) [18]. Such are the realities, since all the fine and right words concerning the complex solution of reclamation problems without perfect irrigation technique, as semi-centennial experience shows, remain just in words.

In that way, reclamation (and not only!) problems have been formed, settlement of which often costs today higher than the application and usage of the most perfect IDSs and irrigation technologies. For comparison, just subsurface drainage of 50 running meter per hectare in length costs more than half of the most perfect irrigation way, trickle irrigation, and equal in value to sprinkling irrigation!

The aforesaid is well illustrated in figure 1, where the analysis of water consumption in different functional units of modern irrigation systems, according to the information from [18].

Figure 1. Use of water resources in Uzbekistan at the level of years 1989-1990.

As a basis for the plotting this picture has served the water balance analysis of the Uzbekistan regions, composed based on the materials of the offices of the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources and State Committee for Hydrometeorology averaged for 1989-1990 years. On the picture, one can see that 37 km3 or half the water taken, including return waters, barely reaches the fields. One can cast a doubt upon the reliability of the source information or the way of its interpretation; therefore, this will be considered to be an opinion of the author and his leader in this analysis - D.F.Solodennikov, principal project engineer of one of regular "Schemes for �" [14]. However, unfortunately, it doesn't matter: there is no another systematized information indeed, and the sequence of the given figures was checked by both the territorial balance and that of stem streams and, therefore, those are worthy of at lest being taken into consideration and serving as a ground for discussion.

At present, we use, taking into account the return water, around 115 - 120 % of water resources (by arithmetical sum of the head water inlet from the sources), but I wonder if we can be proud of this. We could if we had returned this 15 - 20 % of the water to the sources in the condition good for drinking and irrigation; but being proud of the fact that we discharge "slops" into the sources and then, if you will excuse the expression, drink from the "lavatory pan" and turn salinization control by means of drainage into Sisyphean toil, that is take salt from some fields so that to send that to other ones, which is really a nonsense, historical-strategic. It is absolutely apparent, after all, that huge salt amount carried by drainage out from upstream irrigated lands gets to the midstream lands, and then it goes to the downstream one, and however much "fresh" water is supplied to such a system, the situation will not change cardinally, but it may result in the degradation of the new areas of the irrigated lands, especially in the northern parts of Uzbekistan and South of Kazakhstan.

Of course, today it is quite easy to analyze the problem which have been growing imminent for over half a century and was studied not enough, and the consequences of most engineering solutions that have been adopted were not so obvious as they are now, but one need to act in order to find really practicable way-out from the deadlock has been arisen. It should be noted that the development of land-reclamation science was going on in parallel with arising large-scale problems, but with considerably big slippage. This can be traced easily from the publication time of the basic works on that issue [30-40]. We got historically into that situation and the way-out should be sought not through returning to the old decisions (such as only increasing water supply to the systems by brining additional irrigation water volumes [43] from somewhere outside to the system or only exporting to the Aral Sea great amount of return water being formed at the current irrigation technologies [44]), but by searching after other approaches, including those being employed worldwide.

We would like to say to probable opponents of this article out of the old engineers and irrigators (specialists in land-reclamation) groups: "How come it happened that way that the problems have arisen to a considerable degree contrary to your workups?!" After all, in the schemes, it was pointed out that there was a need in, at least, the reconstruction of the system and irrigated lands and in application of perfect irrigation technique� All that was present in your works, but, tell us, please, in all sincerity, how come all that ended in catastrophe?

Indeed, in the abovementioned schemes and designs the all, we had written about earlier, was present to some degree, and as a result we have the Aral Sea CATASTROPHE! An opinion is being formed that nobody wrote those designs and was going to finance and execute. Is there any guarantee that with the "grasping capitalist" having come, the situation will get better than under the "old good socialism" and that what was prescribed in the runoff diversion design [43] will be performed? Nowadays the Aral Sea problem, having become mature for 25-30 years since the appearance of the first runoff diversion designs, is illustrating very clearly the consequences of such "tandems", when one does not think through well or defend that he is designing, and another one does not complete well that written indistinctly in the design.

So, there is direct evidence of water resources deficit being faced by the consumer in the Central Asian region, but not in the region yet: here, so far there is the deficit of problem comprehension and, in this connection, some difficulties with the decision of a sound policy.

This excludes not in the least the need right now for working out of the designs of bringing Siberian rivers water to the Central Asian region, as it is not difficult to understand that in a few decades with any, even super-economic and technically perfect, water use, for the development of irrigated agriculture we will need anyway supplementary water resources, whereas making up good deliberate design takes considerable time. Besides, it is quite apparent that the reasonable redistribution of abundant Siberia water resources to the arid regions rich in thermal resources and having vast areas of undeveloped lands will result in nothing but mutual advantage.

So what should be of priority in tackling the indicated problems and how the Trans-Asian Development Corridor can contribute to the solution of so large-scale problems long before the diversion of Siberian rivers runoffs?
So that to understand what the constructive ways out of the situation have formed may be and, basing upon that, propose a technical strategy for the development of irrigated agriculture in Uzbekistan, as well as determine the role of and periods for the diversion of a part of the Siberian rivers runoffs, let us examine once more elementary truths: why do we need water, what for, and how to use it, and how much of it do we really need?

2. WHAT FOR IS WATER RECLAMATION NEEDED IN THE ARID ZONE?

Water amelioration is required for recovering natural moisture deficit (evaporation minus precipitations) and controlling salt regime of very thin, 0.9 - 1.2 m, root layer needed to grow cultivated plant virtually of any kind, including woody-shrubby too, in which over 90 % of plant's root is, in order to gain the production of plant cultivation [45]. This is the layer which is the subject of hydroengineering land-reclamation, which is supposed to provide water-salt regime in the one. The purpose of other kinds of soil control (agro-technical amelioration) is providing the conditions necessary for the attainment of potentially soil crop-producing power (agricultural engineering for crop cultivation, selection of its kinds and sorts, fertilizer application, and so on).
In the arid zone, moisture deficit available and other natural factors condition the pattern, intensity, and time for conducting corrective actions and a set of technical devices for its realization which, of course, is desirable to be minimized. For different natural conditions, the ways and rate of reclamation should be strictly differentiated [54 - 56].

Implementation of water amelioration by imperfect methods, that is water supply in excess of the volume required and, what is more, leaving aside the root layer (in the form of losses from canals and on irrigation fields), results in the demand for draining and need in salinization control even where the designers and researchers never expected, that is to say it causes secondary, concomitant problems, merely diametrically opposite to the first one and paradoxical for an arid zone. Draining at moisture deficit is paradoxical, isn't it (and this is true), and this aspect is of current importance even for fresh, hydromorphic soil absolutely not subjected to salinization, since, in that case, anyway drainage is needed for water regime control, i.e. water-logging control!).

Let us analyze what effect the losses in one or another functional element of the system make directly upon plant cultivation on the field through forming some hydrogeological and meteorological condition for sufficiently short period of time not exceeding ten years, feeding underground water and producing thereby local head [46, 47].

1. Main and big inter-farm canals, supplying water to irrigation massifs, exert negligible influence on the reclamation state of lands if they pass via non-irrigated areas; otherwise, their effect is reduced to a narrow strip along the canals the specific length of which is little. In this narrow strip alongside of the canals commanding the territory usually alkali soil is formed because of continual feeding and evaporation of underground water with even low salinity.

2. Smaller inter-farm (intra-farm canals in former collective farms, i.e. kolkhoz, and state farms, sovkhoz) and intra-farm canals have the length much longer than the main and inter-farm canals and, therefore, their influence is quite more substantial. Losses from those, counting upon one hectare of irrigated area, come to values commensurable with irrigation rates; and the water loss from those causes the problems not only on the lands prone to salinity. Its head capacity promotes salinization of soil horizon by relic salt solutions being displaced out from deep levels and often brings to swamping on totally fresh soils.

3. Major influence upon the uniformity of field moistening and control of soil salt regime is made by the water distribution means on the fields. According to the definition of the classical scholars of irrigated agriculture, water distribution facilities on the field serve for water conversion from flowing state to soil moisture state. So what will be gained in the result of uniform irrigation with respect to crop yielding, reduction of water consumption by the field, water draining, purity of the sources, and manipulate with water resources?

The experience of a number of countries in the world and numerous experiments in Uzbekistan (of course, correctly conducted from the research standpoint) is evident of that application of mechanized irrigation facilities increases crop capacity by 20 - 40 % and more, contributes to water saving on the field by 20 - 50 % and, owing to that, respective reduction of return water. Every single cubic meter of water have been saved on the field with the conducting network efficiency factor of 50 - 60 % reduces in that way the need in head water withdrawal nearly twice without any reconstruction of the canals system (!). Crop capacity enhancement is achieved most of all due to even water distribution over the field surface and because of possible strict rating of water supply, which is unachievable with surface irrigation ways [27 - 29].

Not long ago, very experienced irrigator and great expert R.A.Alimov [48] estimated the irrigation capacity of the water resources available for Uzbekistan as 2.0 mln ha (today this area comes to 4.2 mln ha) and speak in the quite negative of the results of the numerous experiments of the All-Union Research Institute of Cotton Growing "SoyuzNIHI". He was proceeding from the realities of those irrigation ways that were being practiced that time and are being practiced nowadays. We should say that if to keep irrigated agriculture in manner similar to which has been practiced until now, then one should acknowledge that Mr.Alimov was right. With transferring small lots to individual farmers for long leasing it became impossible, even in theory, to realize the recommendations on the application of optimum parameters for furrow irrigation technique: to keep up the optimum furrow length and water flow to the furrows.

Let us consider the example of the Bukhara region, which has relatively stable reclamation state now. The region annually takes nearly 5.0 km3 of water (roughly 4.0 km3 by machine lifting from the Amudarya river and about 1.0 km3 by self-flowing from the Zarafshan river), and exports around 1.5 - 2.3 km3, that is 30 - 45 %. This is the cost of steady reclamation condition with the current irrigation technique and under comparatively intensive drainage. Water consumption per one hectare amounts here 13.6 - 17.2 m3/ha at irrevocable water consumption in the gross is about 8.2 ths. m3/ha.

The Khorezm region, being famous previously for its high farming standards, now got into a predicament owing to poor drainage and water export problems, and the result was not long in affecting adversely: yield decreased, the reclamation condition is in the worst state. Moreover, all-round allocation of rice crops alternately with upland crops doesn't promote the improvement of ameliorative condition. Herein, water consumption per hectare comes to 17.0 - 21.0 ths.m3/ha with irrevocable water consumption in gross around 5.7 ths. m3/fa. In addition, wide application in the Khorezm region of so-called sub-irrigation, absolutely inadmissible for long use under the conditions of the lands subjected to salinization and having insufficient natural and artificial drainage degree, played a mean joke. Because of the silting of collectors and backwater there, high water exporting is absolutely ineffective and does not contribute to the improvement of reclamation condition, since the irrigation water passes by transit via canals and is discharged through small collectors often spanned with bridges all the year round. In other words, major water mass taken by IDS is virtually not used for irrigation and does not pass the way through the soil to underground water and further to drains and per se flows through the canals to the collectors and further to the catch-waters. Low irrevocable water consumption proves its right.

In the Karakalpakstan republic, the situation is somewhat better due to low land use ratio; here, non-irrigated lands play the part of so-called "dry drainage". Water consumption per one hectare amounts there to 11 - 18.9 ths. m3/ha at irrevocable water consumption in gross about 9.2 ths. m3/ha, which is considerably higher than in Khorezm, though its territory is located on more northern part.
Also other regions of Uzbekistan are not distinguished by high water saving (see table 1).

Table 1. Analysis of water use for irrigation in the regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan
(According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources and Water Design Research Institute for 1989)

Yet, the materials of SoyuzNIHI and other organizations, according to the results of thousands of experiments, are evident of the possibility of considerably lower water consumption at its reasonable use. How can this be comprehended and changed? Why in reality even slightest reduction of water supply causes its famine?

First of all, because the efficiency coefficient of the conducting systems is too low. It does not become higher during low-water years either, and this means the extent of the losses remain, and only the difference between the head water withdrawal and losses.

In table 2, canal lining degree is presented, existing in 1998 in the different regions of Uzbekistan. At present, the situation is still worse, since for the past period the most of lining became worthless, and reconstruction was not made.

 

Table 2. Extension and technical feature of the main and inter-farm network (km).
(According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources and Water Design Research Institute for 1989)

*) Data of the Department of Reclamation and Water Economy of Uzbekistan "Uzmeliovodhoz"

Another reason, technical, is imperfect irrigation technique. Furrow irrigation cannot even theoretically provide uniform irrigation and acceptable quantity of depth and surface discharges [24-29]. A maximum that can be reached with its application under ideal conditions (mainly on paper and in computer) is the so-called irrigation technology factor equal to 0.7 which represents the ratio of all the water supplied to the field to the water absorbed by it (that is without surface discharge). At that, the uniformity of field moistening and side-effects in the form of the losses to depth discharge through ground water in the result of salt redistribution are not taken into account [41 - 42].

Today, a perfect irrigation technology is applied nowhere in Uzbekistan, excepting for the experimental and productive plots in various research institutes. It is interesting that in work [50], executed on the instructions of the Water Design Institute "Vodprojekt" for the working out of a regular "Scheme for �" [19], notwithstanding the advantages of perfect irrigation ways being described, the following several errors were made:

• " at sprinkling, up to 25 - 30 % of irrigation water is purportedly lost in air, though the works of SANIIRI itself [51], Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations [52] and [53] demonstrated that this is physically impossible and is not corroborated; see also the article on our website "ON SPRINKLING APPLICATION IN THE KYZYLKUM DESERT".
• "sprinkling application is recommended only under hydromorphic conditions with fresh underground water (where it practically cannot allow water saving);
  
• " at economic evaluation of a perfect irrigation technique according to the capital investments (based on the facilities cost) and annual expenses, they mention, for some reason, of the need for taking into account combined investments into industry as if the prices of it, perfect irrigation technique, are not allowed for in the cost of the equipment being manufactured.
  
• " in the section, referring to the recommendations on the irrigation systems reconstruction, they even do not mention of the application of perfect irrigation way.
  

Underestimation of the significance of irrigation technique is prevailing amongst irrigators. Probably, they think it is the duty of agrarians to tackle the question of water use on the field. We will cite as an example a pretty serious work "Integrated water resources control" [57], the necessity of which is difficult to overestimate. In this, out of 95 pages of the text, literally a few lines are dedicated to the problem of water use perfection, in fact, on fields (that is, where mostly the "integrated control" is being performed)! However, in our opinion, even superperfect control of water resources at every level, except the field, can settle nothing basically, neither in irrigated agriculture nor in reclamation, and in ecology either. (We shall remind once more that it is irrigated agriculture that consumes nearly 88 % of the water resources of the region!).
And the third reason of higher water withdrawal is insufficient drainage degree of the irrigated territories, not conforming to the above-enumerated losses. Heavy nonproductive water consumption in the conducting systems and on the fields under these conditions leads to groundwater rise and its increased consumption in inter-irrigation periods for evaporation and transpiration because of increasing inter-irrigation-period average moisture in the upper soil layers, which conduces to soil salinization. (It is very substantial that this moisture flow "works" against the conditions required for soil desalinization! In order to understand this, one needs to imagine a three-dimensional picture of moisture flow movement in the aeration zone and lower strata). As a result of this, to keep normal salt regime of the soil, increased irrigation water consumption is required. The calculations of long-term water-salt soil regime for the period of 10-20 years, made for the territories of different conditions of underground water level and artificial drainage degree [49], evidences that the lower is the drainage degree, the more irrigation water needs to be supplied to maintain specified conditions for the plants in the soil root layer: for keeping stable, in the many year's perspective, water-salt regime. Moreover, if the drainage degree is lower than a certain degree, regular irrigated agriculture becomes impossible at all because of soil swamping.
In the light of the above-stated, it becomes clear why water consumption in real practice and on the experimental fields are so sharply different to that considered in the designs, plans, and calculations.
What will Siberian water bringing result in if the irrigation systems and irrigation technology on fields (especially on highly water-permeable those in the lower reaches) remain at the current level? What consequences may be in the result of water bringing for irrigation without construction of perfect irrigation and drainage systems in the northern parts of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan? Why without reconstructing IDS it is inexpedient and perilous to divert the Siberian rivers runoffs?
From the aforecited facts and materials, it is clear that an ecological catastrophe is to the fore, and one must find and eliminate the causes rather than the consequences, and the first precept of an honest engineer in irrigation as well as of a doctor must be the precept "DO NOT HARM".
In Kazakhstan, this is, first of all, the hazard of salinization and soil alkalinization. At that, the solonetzic soil reclamation problems are more complicated than the reclamation of salted ones.
In Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and in Kazakhstan's dry southern parts with slight slope of the surface that are the "areas of final outlet" from the geochemical standpoint, there is swamping and salinization risk.
An idea suggests itself that, at first, one needs to create the conditions for the efficient intake of Siberian water, recover the reclamation and ecological situation in Uzbekistan IDSs, and only then venture upon such a costly work. And this, in itself, will allow to delay considerably the terms of carrying out the project in question.
A question arises, where from to get funds to purchase machinery? And where from to get such amount of energy so that to provide the operation of sprinkling machines and trickle irrigation systems? It is strange but, for some reason, no question emerges in anyone's brain concerning where from so far the funds are found for the machine lifting 50 % of all irrigation water (nearly 30 km3)? And, then, at the expense of what 70 % of uselessly lost water is exported? And if being more exact, one should replace the expression "uselessly lost" with "lost to the detriment of reclamation and ecological conditions of the irrigated lands".
In table 3, the efficiencies of different irrigation methods for typical conditions of Uzbekistan (heavy medium-loamy soils on loess-like strata, occupying in area extent about 50 % of all the irrigated nowadays lends) with respect to irrigation water productivity [27-29]. For highly-water-permeable soils (they take up over 25 % of the Uzbekistan irrigated lands), the effect in the result of the application of high irrigation technologies is expected to be several times higher.

Table 3. Comparative effectiveness of different irrigation methods for the typical conditions of Uzbekistan.

Approximate calculations carried out based on increased figures of the needs for water and water water-drain (taken from well detailed workups of the current condition under the existing irrigation technology, which were made in the works of "Vodproject" of recent years [19]) and expounded by us for various IDS development scenarios for remote outlook are presented in table 4. These data are showing very clearly what should be the priorities of Uzbekistan IDS development strategies. The ones may serve as the basis for determining the time of needed feeding with Siberian water (at detailed working out of the design).

Table 4. Probable scenarios of Uzbekistan irrigated agriculture development on the base of the water resources fixed by inter-governmental agreements.

*) As a matter of fact, the degree of irrigation rates under perfect irrigation technique will reduce by 20-40 %, while for the 25 % of highly water-permeable soils even more, which, consequently, will improve very much the situation of DDF export and draining of subjacent areas, e.g. those adjacent to adyrs.

Technical conditions, under which the Siberian water is not going to do harm to the existing non-irrigated and irrigated lands in the northern (particularly!!!) and southern zones, should be, in our view, completely up-to-date equipped AMELIORATIVE systems which are oriented to getting PRODUCTION, AND NOT TO MAKING PROBLEMS FOR LAND-RECLAMATION! Here, the questions of priority are those concerning allowing for climatic, hydrogeological, and soil conditions of the territories supposed for water supply increase or new irrigation. Otherwise, the lot of the Siberian water brought will be the same as of ours, Central Asian one.

What can be undertaken in order, at least, to distinguish really realizable one from that ought to be delayed for future? Where is it economically sound to grant at the expense of the government the purchase and exploitation of irrigation technique, and where is it unprofitable?
In our opinion, it is necessary, without sparing funds and attention from the government, to work out a strategic scheme for water industry development so that, with using available research and production workups in the land-reclamation sector, to determine the territory where one or another technical and organizational solution will be efficient. At the same time, one should take into account the present-day market situation (existing ration of costs to energy, energy carriers, engineering industry output, perfect irrigation methods, and agricultural products).

Since the radical reconstruction of Uzbekistan IDS is a greatly difficult task from the technical point of view, which requires developed industry and is capital-intensive and long-timed; it should be realized by a long-term strategic plan, in the accomplishment of that Russia, because of its geographical location, has its own interests. Throughout the world, perfect, quite cheap irrigation equipment, machines for canal lining, agricultural machinery, and so forth have been manufactured. But the delivery cost of that equipment to Uzbekistan is too high and is very often comparable with its own cost. Having in the past huge industrial and military-industrial potential, Russia could, on its base, become a competitor for most foreign countries with regard to the manufacture of reclamation machinery.

Hence, the priority degree of Russian cooperation with Uzbekistan is apparent, so that to break the vicious circle of our, Uzbekistan, water resources shortage (at the same time their, Russia, comparative water abundance today!), in the joint and mutually beneficial manufacture of cheap and reliable irrigation equipment for selling to Uzbekistan (possibly on credit) as early as at the stage preceding the Siberian rivers runoffs diversion. At that, cooperation forms may be very diverse: from direct contracts with individual farmers for delivery of compact irrigation equipment and agricultural machines to contracts at government level for supplying construction machines and systems for building and reconstruction of IDS. The only point is that whether the Russian manufacturer will be able to handle such a problem as producing that equipment of good quality and low cost, so that to compete with the Western and Eastern countries.

3. WHAT SPECIFIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR RUSSIA AND UZBEKISTAN WILL THE EURASIAN COMMUNITY OFFER FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE AND LAND-RECLAMATION?

Russia can find a very wide market to sale a broad range of manufactured goods and productions for irrigation long before the realization of the project on the diversion of some part of the Siberian rivers runoff, as follows:

• pumps with capacity of 20 to 50 m3/s;
  
• hydropower units for big and small hydropower stations;
  
• irrigation equipment (sprinkling, drip irrigation, etc.), designed for various soil-reclamation conditions and various servicing areas;
  
• machines for the construction and lining of canals when building a new hydropower station and its reconstruction;
  
• excavators for cleaning canals and collectors;
  
• tractors and other types of agricultural machinery;
  
• reclamation machines and devices.
  

  On the other hand, Uzbekistan is a traditional producer of the unique plant cultivation product that has no analogues in the world, as well as the technical crop product which is in steadily high demand on the world market, such like:
  

• rathe vegetables;
  
• fresh fruits, vegetables, and melon and gourds: dried apricots, apricot, grapes, pomegranate, melon, water-melon, onion, garlic, and so on;
  
• dried fruits: dried apricots, apricot, grapes, melon, and so on;
  
• walnut, almond, pistachio, peanut;
  
• spicery;
  
• wines and wine products;
  
• technical crops: cotton, liquorice, kenaf, etc.
  

  Maybe, realization of the above-said on the questions, to the point, of reclamation will increase the amount of capital investments required for the carrying out of the project of Siberian rivers runoffs diversion to the Central Asian region, but, at the same time, it will hasten and make stable their return; in the market economy, not only investment amount is significant, but its return in the form of profit is even more important. It's time to forget that "economy must be economic" - it must effective.
  The reforms, being carried out recent years in Uzbekistan in the field of water interrelations between the agents of the governmental systems and water users which is directed towards water use regulation and transition to market relations, allow hoping for soon positive results; and the recent inter-governmental agreements, concluded in November of 2005 between Uzbekistan and Russia and ratified on March 7, 2006, enable to start wide cooperation in land-reclamation too.

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